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Kim Jong Un: China’s Ally Turned ‘Comrade from Hell’

Adler MorisLeave a comment

As autumn breezes sweep through the border town of Fangchuan, Chinese tourists gather on a twelve-story building, jostling for the perfect vantage point to capture the unique confluence of China, Russia, and North Korea. Here, national flags overlap on a map, illustrating the geographical and political significance of this area in China’s northeast corner.

A Prideful Perspective

“I feel very proud to be standing here… with Russia on my left and North Korea on my right,” declares a woman visiting with her co-workers. Her sentiment reflects a sense of camaraderie that many locals feel, suggesting that borders are insignificant among the people. However, this optimism might be overly simplistic. Just as Fangchuan is a sliver of Chinese territory wedged between its two sanctioned neighbors, China itself finds itself caught in a complex geopolitical web.

Growing Concerns

Recent weeks have heightened fears over the budding alliance between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. Reports have surfaced indicating that North Korea may deploy thousands of troops to support Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. This development comes amidst escalating tensions, exemplified by North Korea’s recent launch of a banned intercontinental missile, marking a significant provocation after weeks of intensified rhetoric aimed at South Korea.

“China seeks a relationship with a reasonable, high level of control over North Korea,” explains Christopher Green, an analyst from the International Crisis Group. “North Korea’s relationship with Russia threatens to undermine that control.” If Chinese leader Xi Jinping is unable to navigate the evolving Putin-Kim alliance to his advantage, China may find itself increasingly marginalized as Western anxieties intensify.

Mapping the Triad

Geographically, Fangchuan serves as a crucial point where the borders of all three nations meet. Despite Moscow and Pyongyang’s denials of troop movements towards Ukraine, the U.S. has reported evidence supporting these claims, following intelligence leaks from South Korean and Ukrainian sources. This situation began to unfold just before Xi’s meeting with Putin at the Brics summit earlier in October, an event overshadowed by the alarming news of military cooperation.

It appears that China’s once stable alliances are becoming precarious. Beijing, as the senior partner in this triad, aims to position itself as a stable leader in a new world order, one that is less influenced by the U.S. However, this ambition is complicated by the actions of its allies: one engaging in military aggression in Europe and the other allegedly supporting that aggression.

A Delicate Balance

“China is unhappy with the way things are going,” remarks Green. “However, they are trying to keep their discontent relatively quiet.” The sensitivity surrounding this issue is evident in Fangchuan, where tourists are welcomed but journalists face scrutiny. The team reporting on the situation encountered repeated questioning, surveillance, and even police visits to their hotel.

In the midst of these tensions, tourists on the viewing platform are more focused on glimpsing North Korea than the complexities of international relations. “I saw a person cycling,” one girl exclaims, peering through a telescope. Her friend, intrigued, rushes over to look. The allure of the mysterious country across the border captures the imagination of many.

Historical Context

The Tumen River flows gently through this tri-border region, marking China’s gateway to the Sea of Japan, where territorial disputes with Tokyo linger. This 1,400-kilometer-long (870 miles) border offers one of the few accessible views into North Korea, particularly when compared to the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea.

A local man reflects on the significance of their neighbor: “North Korea has always been our neighbor. It’s no stranger to us,” he says, contemplating the stark differences in prosperity. North Korea relies heavily on China, with over 90% of its foreign trade—especially food and fuel—coming from its powerful neighbor.

Historically, the dynamics have shifted. In the early 1960s, it was Chinese citizens fleeing famine who crossed into North Korea, some even attending school there due to the perception of a superior education system. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 devastated North Korea’s economy, leading to severe food shortages and a humanitarian crisis that forced many to seek refuge in China.

A Shifting Relationship

Green notes that since the Soviet Union’s fall, North Korea has had little choice but to maintain close ties with China, its primary benefactor. Yet, the landscape is changing. Russia is now offering North Korea an alternative source of support, and the regime appears keen to exploit this newfound relationship.

Historically, Mao Zedong characterized the China-North Korea relationship as akin to that of “lips and teeth,” implying an inseparable bond. However, sociologist Aidan Foster-Carter argues that North Korea has often acted as “the comrade from hell” for both Russia and China, taking what it can without displaying gratitude.

An Evolving Alliance

In the past year, Kim Jong Un has consistently prioritized flattery towards Putin over Xi. Despite not having met Xi since 2019, Kim has engaged with Putin on multiple occasions, strengthening ties in the context of the Ukraine conflict. The increasing military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang raises significant concerns for Beijing.

As tourists snap photos and admire the view, the whistle of a train interrupts their chatter. A steam locomotive pulls freight carriages across a bridge linking Russia and North Korea, halting at a Korean sign proclaiming, “Towards a new victory!” This trade route symbolizes the growing collaboration between the two countries amid international scrutiny.

Beijing’s Dilemma

The U.S. government estimates that North Korea has provided significant military support to Russia, selling over a million artillery shells and Grad rockets for use in Ukraine, a claim that Pyongyang vehemently denies. Regardless of these denials, the partnership has deepened with the signing of a security pact in June, promising mutual support in the event of aggression.

China remains noticeably silent on these developments, despite its concerns. Recently, U.S. State Department officials have raised alarms about North Korean troop movements with their Chinese counterparts, highlighting a rare moment of alignment between the U.S. and China regarding regional stability.

While Beijing has the capacity to influence North Korea through measures such as cutting off oil and coal supplies, it faces the daunting prospect of a refugee crisis if the regime collapses. The delicate balance of power has forced Xi to tread carefully; any drastic action could lead to unintended consequences.

Future Implications

The prospect of North Korean troops on a Ukrainian battlefield could further destabilize East Asia. South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol has responded by discussing strengthening security cooperation with Ukraine and NATO, while considering the need for a nuclear arsenal in response to growing threats from the North.

The ramifications of the Putin-Kim alliance are vast. An emboldened North Korea could provoke a more robust U.S. military response, ultimately complicating China’s ambitions for regional dominance. The longstanding Chinese policy aimed at preventing a nuclear-armed North Korea has clearly faltered, leaving Beijing with few favorable options.

Experts express concerns about what advanced military technology Russia might provide to North Korea, particularly in the realms of satellite capabilities and nuclear technology. Aidan Foster-Carter warns that while Russia understands the risks of empowering a “loose cannon” like Kim, the dynamics of this alliance pose a threat to regional stability.

Conclusion

Across the Tumen River, a North Korean soldier watches as Chinese tourists enjoy their day, oblivious to the complexities that surround their picturesque view. The stark divide between the two nations is palpable, with North Koreans living under strict limitations while their Chinese neighbors embrace a life of relative freedom and prosperity.

As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the futures of China, North Korea, and Russia remain inextricably linked, fraught with tension and uncertainty. The fragile alliance is a gamble for all parties involved, with the potential for instability that could impact millions on both sides of the border. The river may serve as a physical barrier, but the political currents running through this region are anything but stagnant.

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